●1st Assessment of Climate Change over the Indian Region
•It was published by the Ministry of Earth Sciences (MoES)
•It is India’s first-ever national forecast on the impact of global warming on the subcontinent in the coming century.
•These projections, based on a climate forecasting model developed at the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM), Pune, will be part of the next report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), expected to be ready in 2022.
•In a worst-case scenario, average surface air temperatures over India could rise by up to 4.4°C by the end of the century as compared to the period between 1976 and 2005 😯!!
[Under an intermediate scenario of RCP 4.5, the country’s average temperature could rise by up to 2.4°C.]
•The rise in temperatures will be even more pronounced in the Hindu Kush-Himalayan region where the average could reach 5.2°C.
•By 2100, the frequency of warm days and warm nights might also increase by 55% and 70% respectively
•Between 1900 and 2018, the average temperatures of India rose by 0.7°C
•The latest global climate change assessments indicate a rise in worldwide average surface air temperatures by 5°C by the end of the century if human activities keep emitting GHGs at the current rate.
•The global average temperature in the last century has gone up by 1.1°C, according to the latest estimates by the IPCC.
•Even if the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) declared by countries under the Paris Agreement 2015 are met, the global average temperature could rise by around 3°C, which could be disastrous.
•Another significant highlight of the assessment is the projected variability in the rainfall, especially during the monsoon season which brings 70% of the rainfall received by India and is one of the primary drivers of its rural agrarian economy.
•Monsoon rainfall could change by an average of 14% by 2100 that could go as high as 22.5%. It is not mentioned if this change will be an increase or a decrease but still represents variability.
Overall rainfall during the monsoon season has decreased by 6% between 1950 and 2015.
•In the past few decades, there has been an increased frequency of dry spells during the monsoon season that has increased by 27% between 1981-2011, as compared to 1951-1980.
•The intensity of wet spells has also increased over the country, with central India receiving 75% more extreme rainfall events between 1950 and 2015.