●Covid-19 may spread more in winter in: Study
•According to a recent study, “The Covid-19 Spread in India and Its Dependence on Temperature and Relative Humidity”, the spread of Covid-19 may pick up the pace during peak monsoon and winter with a fall in the temperature
[The study was conducted by IIT, Bhubaneswar and AIIMS, Bhubaneswar]
• 1℃ rise in temperature leads to a 0.99% decrease in cases and increases the doubling time by 1.13 days, implying a slowdown of the virus spread.
【The respiratory viral pandemics of the 21st century (SARS in 2003, Swine Flu in 2009) have revealed that seasonality in environmental factors plays an important role in the dynamics of their spread.】
•Researchers tried to observe the state-level relationship between environmental factors such as temperature, relative humidity, specific humidity and solar radiation on the Covid-19 spread over the Indian region.
•The rainfall, decrease in temperatures and cooling of the atmosphere coupled with progression towards winter may environmentally favour the spread of Covid-19 in the country.
•Temperature and relative humidity have a significant impact on the disease growth rate and doubling time and the rise in temperatures leads to a decline in the transmission of the virus.
•higher surface-reaching solar radiation leads to a reduction in the number of infections and an increase in the doubling time of cases, similar to that of temperatures.
•The mean difference of as high as seven degrees Celsius between summer and winter points to a possibility for greater potential spread of Covid-19 in winter.
•The progression of the season towards monsoon, post-monsoon, and after that winter with a continuous reduction in temperature will prove a significant challenge for health workers and policymakers attempting to enforce mitigation and control measures.